The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) experienced a modest recovery during Thursday’s Asian market trading but still faces a foggy future due to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) cautious stance on fiscal policy. The uncertainty of the NZD’s worth is attributed to both domestic and international economic indicators, heavily influenced by China’s economic performance and the RBNZ’s reserved monetary policy.
China, being New Zealand’s primary trade ally, plays a critical role in shaping the NZD’s value. Positive economic trends in China can strengthen the NZD, while adverse fluctuations in dairy prices, a key driver of the New Zealand economy, can apply upward pressure. With the ongoing global pandemic and geopolitical tensions, predicting the future of the NZD becomes a complex task.
Speculation about a potential drop in US interest rates in September due to a declining inflation trend could support the NZD. If the US dollar is undercut, the NZD’s value could increase against its US counterpart, making investment in Dollar-based assets less attractive and pushing investors towards higher-yielding currencies like the NZD.
Retail sales in China for July saw an unexpected 2.7% jump on a year-on-year basis. Additionally, the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, suggesting a controlled employment situation.
NZD’s modest recovery amidst economic factors
However, a minor dip in Industrial Production to 5.1% YoY implies potential disruption in the manufacturing sector due to the ongoing pandemic, highlighting the uncertainty in China’s economic situation.
Following a recent cut in interest rates, the RBNZ’s stance could put downward pressure on the NZD. The market is now closely observing several economic indicators—including US Retail Sales, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Industrial Production data. If these indicators depict a favorable economic atmosphere in the US, the USD/NZD pair could see an upward correction.
Despite the uncertain climate, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr expressed confidence in the banking sector’s resilience. The final decision on rate adjustment will be based on various economic indicators and will be clarified in their next policy announcement.
The US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a YoY increase of 2.9% in July, which is a dip from June’s 3%. Despite bearish signals for the NZD, it ended the day on a high in US trading. However, the NZD’s performance was relatively weak against the Australian Dollar over the last week.
