The EUR/USD pair is keeping steady, slightly above recent low rates due to the anticipatory defensive posture of USD supporters who predict a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The resilience of the pair can be linked to cautious traders navigating the complex forex market influenced by political tensions and economic data. Investors are also closely watching the Euro-zone economy, hoping for significant developments in the ongoing Brexit saga.
The pair previously couldn’t capitalize on overnight surges, fluctuating around the 1.0800 mark. The current spot prices are approximately 1.0820-1.0825, with the market waiting for critical Eurozone macroeconomic data. If this data signals a positive economic trend, the pair may break the 1.0820-1.0825 resistance level. However, if the data underperforms, it might drop the pair to the 1.0800 mark or lower.
The data to be released includes Germany’s initial consumer inflation figures, GDP estimates for both Germany and the Eurozone, Eurozone CPI report, and the Federal Reserve rate meeting conclusion.
Assessing EUR/USD trajectory: Impact of Eurozone data
Also, the US Non-Farm Payrolls report due in early September is predicted to alter the trajectory for a Federal rate cut.
From a technical viewpoint, despite a 50% decline from the June-July surge, spot prices showed resilience. But daily chart oscillators indicate a downward trend for the pair, suggesting potentially more bearish territory in the future. Investors must carefully watch these signals, considering conservative and calculated decisions.
The extension of the recent retracement from July’s four-month high would need acceptance below the 100-day SMA. A subsequent price drop could drive spot prices lower than the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 1.0775 and challenge the 1.0745 support level. However, if spot prices surge, they could meet resistance near the 1.0840-1.0845 range with additional strength potentially pushing the pair past the 1.0865 barrier, towards the 1.0885-1.0890 range. A successful break past 1.0900 could lead to revisiting several months’ high in the mid-1.0900s.
In conclusion, the future trajectory of the EUR/USD pair highly depends on the forthcoming economic data and the investor’s ability to navigate the results towards potential future gains. Both upward and downward trends hold possible opportunities being closely observed by traders globally.
